IFPS and the Future of the National Weather Service

The National Weather Service (NWS) is now in the midst of a major paradigm shift regarding the creation and distribution of its forecasts. Instead of writing a wide array of text products, forecasters will make use of an interactive forecast preparation system (IFPS) to construct a 7-day graphical representation of the weather that will be distributed on grids of 5-km grid spacing or better (Ruth 2002, personal communication). To create these fields, a forecaster starts with model grids at coarser resolution, uses ‘‘model interpretation’’ and ‘‘smart’’ tools to combine and downscale model output to a high-resolution IFPS grid, and then makes subjective alterations using the graphical forecast editor. Such gridded fields are then collected into a national digital forecast database that is available for distribution and use. Last, the gridded forecasts are converted to a variety of text products using automatic text formatters. There is little question that the NWS must trend toward graphical forecast products if it is to remain effective and relevant. First, only graphical/gridded distribution can effectively communicate the detailed spatial/temporal information that is becoming available as model resolution increases, knowledge of local weather features advances, and observing systems improve. Second, gridded forecasts are required for effective distribution over the Web and through the media. Third, many new forecast applications (such as transportation applications and automated warning systems) require a digital/gridded forecast feed. Although graphical tools clearly have a major place in the forecast office of the future, the current implementation of IFPS by the NWS has major conceptual and technical deficiencies that threaten to undermine the institution’s ability to provide skillful forecasts to the public and to other users. This paper will examine some